Last season’s battle for the Premier League title was a white-knuckle one, with Manchester City coming back from behind to beat Aston Villa 3-2 in the final round with Gündogan’s second goal, snatching the Premier League title from Liverpool, who missed out on the top by a single point, in what was a Hollywood director-led title race. Will City continue to dominate this season?
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Winning the title: Red and blue singing a double act?
Looking at the progress of reinforcements in the transfer market so far, among the top six teams in the Premier League last season, Manchester City and Liverpool are quite targeted, with City signing Haaland, Liverpool signing Nunez, and Arsenal signing Jesus, with only Manchester United not making much progress yet, except Christian Eriksen.
City have further strengthened their squad this summer with the signing of Haaland in one go, as well as the imminent signing of homegrown player Kalvin Phillips from Leeds United and the signing of Argentine 22-year-old international Alvarez from River Plate in January, so it’s fair to say that City’s squad will be even stronger in the new season than last season, and although Jesus already left for Arsenal, it won’t affect City’s ability to fight in any way.
However, the predictions show that Pep Guardiola’s side only have a 24% chance of defending their Premier League title in the new season.
In contrast, Liverpool, who missed out on the Premier League title by a single point last season, are hotly tipped to win the new season, with predictions putting Liverpool at 71% chance of winning the Premier League title.
Although Sadio Mane has already moved to Bayern Munich, the Reds’ trident comes to a disintegration, and it is not known whether the newly signed striker Nunez can adapt to the Premier League, Liverpool is arguably the favourite to win the title, but the probability of winning the title is a bit exaggerated from the prediction results.
Top 4: Arsenal back in the Champions League?
According to the forecast results, the new season into the top four teams, in addition to Manchester City and Liverpool has been ironically occupied 1-2.
Arsenal has a 59% chance of returning to the Champions League, while Tottenham Hotspur also has a 49% chance of entering the top four.
With the change of ownership, Chelsea’s probability to advance to the top four is 39%.
Chelsea have had a rather depressing summer window, with several of the main targets Tuchel had in mind not joining them.
Rafinha is bent on joining Barcelona, and Jules Kounde also sees Barca as his first choice.
With Rüdiger and Christensen gone, Chelsea have brought in Kalidou Koulibaly, but this is certainly not enough and the next priority for Chelsea is still a new centre-back with the ability to play as a rugular starter.
Also, there are variables in Chelsea’s forward line. After the departure of Romelu Lukaku, they did not sign a new center, but brought in Sterling from Manchester City. With Werner never finding his shooting boots, the lack of a consistent goal scorer under Tuchel will be a problem that cannot be ignored.
Conte was happy this summer and got basically all the players he wanted. In particular, the arrival of Richarlison as well as Bissouma has instantly lifted the midfield up a gear. Tottenham’s trident is already as good as any of the big guns, and the midfield is hard enough to support Conte’s tactical vision. Not to mention the top 4, with Conte’s insider attributes, Spurs could even become a force to shake up Manchester City and Liverpool.
Manchester United, who are in the reconstruction, only has a 15% chance of entering the top four.
The arrival of Erik ten Hag has given Man United some hope, but the team’s additions this summer have been rather ineffective, especially as it took a lot of time to still fail to take Frenkie de Jong, and United’s ability to get the ball out from the back is still a hidden problem. Also, the farce of Ronaldo’s departure continues and no one knows when or if he will be back. In turn, Ronaldo’s stay or departure affects United’s plans to strengthen their forward line.
In short, instead of solving the major problems of last season, United have encountered new ones, which makes it hard to feel optimistic about their prospects in the new season. If United still can’t finish in the top 4, they will have to bring in top players if they want to improve, but without Champions League qualification they won’t be able to attract top players, so the rebuild is in a vicious circle.
Behind United in 7th to 10th place are West Ham at 8.22%, Leicester City at 6.23%, Newcastle at 1.95% and Aston Villa at 1.61%. These teams are capable of being top 4 spoilers, but it’s hard to shake up the BIG 6 at the moment. But the odds of Newcastle coming in at just 9th are a real surprise.
Relegation: Fulham again?
From the predicted results, the promotion of Nottingham Forest team relegation success probability is 33%. Another promotion horse Bournemouth is also only 35% chance of relegation success.
There is a promotion horse Fulham also has a 63% chance of relegation, may be another lift, or that familiar recipe.
Fulham won the EFL championship in the last season, scored 106 goals and lost 43 goals. The offensive firepower is in full swing. The team’s top scorer Mitrovic scored 43 goals, and Fulham’s attacking firepower is guaranteed for the new season, depending on their defensive capabilities.
Everton, who squeaked out of relegation last season, are also listed as favourites for relegation, with the Toffees having a 21% chance to be knocked out, as well as Southampton, who are also under-rated, with the Saints having a 39% chance of relegation.
And surprisingly Wolverhampton Wanderers, who are also predicted to have a 21% chance of relegation. But what about the predicted relegation zone without any mention of Leeds United, who narrowly escaped relegation last season?
Clevpicks Prediction of 2022/2023 Premier League:
Champion: Manchester City
Top 4: Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal
Top 6: Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal, Manchester United and West Ham
Relegation: Leeds United, Bournemouth and Everton
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